Daily Market News - 15th September 2022
Market Support & Energy
On Tuesday we got our CPI print.
I don’t think The Avengers could’ve caused as much damage.
But hey, nobody said it would be easy.
Being aggressively long OR short, is probably a recipe for disaster, we also have to navigate the Fed next week, which promises more shenanigans.
In this weeks letter, I’ll cover a few charts I’ve shared with our members in the last couple of weeks, so let’s get into it.
If the S&P500 is above the most recent higher low / Fibonacci Retracement level, despite all the fear mongering in mainstream financial media, I’m still looking for buy positions.
If we break below these levels, it’s a problem.
The Above 200 Simple Moving Average percentage is a very basic Market Breadth indicator, and for me I’m seeing expansion.
Could it collapse and we test the June lows (and beyond)?
Absolutely it could, I’m open to it. Prepare for all outcomes is how I learned it.
In our Midweek Half Time last night (Members Only), I presented 5 bullish charts for stocks breaking out of massive base bottoms, so there are plenty of stocks doing just fine.
The small caps have the same look.
Given they’re a massive gauge of market risk on/off sentiment, I probably want to pay attention to the information price gives us at these levels.
Aside from the US Dollar this year, the Energy play has been a relatively easy win, this chart is taken from our ETF Chartbook and now that XLE has reclaimed those 2016/2018 former highs, I probably err on the side of energy now making a run to test those 2014 ATH levels.
The risk to this chart are words like “deal reached with Putin” which I have to say on a personal level, I probably expect at this point because Europe just cannot continue to deal with the escalating energy prices.
For energy to get motoring, we should look for the big hitters in the space to break out, and with XOM, it’s now fast approaching it’s ATH levels. The last time we got here, it sold off, and XLE got taken away with it, so you probably want to pay attention to it also.
Conoco Phillips is another big hitter in the space. This was sent our clients / members as a high conviction idea a month ago and it’s now approaching our upside objectives.
COP and XOM are 2 names to keep an eye on, both showing incredible relative strength, if they continue to rip higher, why place a limit on how far they can go?
If they break out, just stay on the ride for as long as you can.
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