Daily Market News - 24th Feb 2022
The Ukraine / Russia Conundrum
If you’re only just waking up, you’ll see it front and centre that Ukraine are being invaded by Russia.
Before I get into this weeks letter, let me first say my thoughts and prayers are with the Ukrainian people at this time. I have no words.
It’s tragic, so I’m not going to try to comment on the political situation or try to give any opinions on it, I’ll just stick to the charts.
In last weeks letter I highlighted the importance of the small caps and the key level to watch - LAST WEEKS LETTER HERE , unfortunately, we put in the successful bearish retest I’ve been fearing and over the last week, we’ve seen the small caps lead the dance lower.
Small Caps - IWM Chart
German DAX (DAXX)
For those who were watching closely, there was a MASSIVE clue on Monday when the US Markets were closed. I posted the chart below to Twitter on Monday and the German DAX has now confirmed the break down.
S&P500 ETF (SPY)
Over the last 10 days, I’ve been communicating the chart below to our clients and members and when the market opens today, we’re going to move below what I deem a key support level in the market.
Futures are currently being battered and it looks to be a confirmed bearish Head and Shoulders pattern
Technology (QQQ)
Big Tech isn’t faring much better, we’ve already undercut the October lows, and we’re now under cutting last months lows… this is a characteristic of a down trend, and the question I think everyone has on their lips just now is along the lines of… are we only just getting started.
Make no mistake, Tech has crashed, the market has crashed… I know some of you will throw back to me the S&P500 hasn’t dropped 20% yet but I don’t care, the market has crashed in my book.
When Will We Rally?
The market is forward looking and is right now, currently, as I type these very words, the market is already pricing in the war in Ukraine and just when you least expect it, when fear is at it’s absolutely highest, there will be a face ripping rally higher, retail will be selling, and smart money buying. That’s just how it works.
Time Horizon
1 of my members sent me an email yesterday asking what my outlook is for the next 6 months, and rather than sugar coat it, and write up a half baked response with a heap of mumbo jumbo.. my response was as follows.
“I’ve no idea, it’s impossible to predict where we go from here, my time horizon is day by day / week by week”
There are plenty of analysts who’ll convince you they know what comes next… go watch mainstream media, there are plenty of them out there who’ll convince you what comes tomorrow and next week, and next month, and 10yrs from now… let me assure you… nobody knows… that’s the trick mainstream media plays on retail.
I treat everything on a chart by chart basis… many of our clients / members are currently hedging long positions with Put Options on names like SQ, ARWR, CRM and many more, and those with a stronger stomach than I, are sticking to their own investing principals and dollar cost averaging on quality names instead of managing risk closely.
There’s no right or wrong answer, there’s only process.
Stay safe out there whatever your approach is.
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