Daily Market News - 5th Jan 2022
The Great Valuation Reset 2022
The market is at All Time Highs and you might be wondering why everything is super cheap. Am I right?
Today, I’m going to share a few charts and some data that I think’s worth considering over the coming weeks.
But first off, lets take a look at some spectacular recent face plants.
Under the surface, (us analysts like to call it market breadth) growth tech has been getting absolutely massacred.
Those “stay at home stocks” fallen out of favour a year ago and while things like 80% drawdowns seem like a great idea, when we take a closer inspection at basic Fundamental metrics like P/E Ratios and Earnings Growth, many of these names (if they even have a P/E) are STILL insanely over valued.
Look at Peloton, the poster child for fitness at home… Unless they put in a spectacular rebound with their earnings numbers, it’s certainly possible it continues to crater lower… those of you dollar cost averaging on a name like that. Good luck with that 1.
In my view, there’s a valuation reset going on in Tech, and for me, quality names are names to own.
So, What Name’s Can We Look At?
Captain hindsight tells us the market has made a shift over the last few months. It’s why my work has been focussed on quality (I’ve added a watchlist below for you), and I have a few charts I’d also like to share.
Strong technical charts, strong earnings growth, and reasonable P/E ratios. I’m not reinventing any wheels around here.
But before you consider stocks, be careful with the broader market.
S&P500 (SPY)
This chart is the biggest headache for every professional on the planet. If this breaks down, hold onto your hats.
We seen the same thing in small caps 6 weeks ago and we know how that turned out.
Get defensive would be the message and look for quality.
Micron Technology (MU)
Potentially breaking out of a 20yr base probably isn’t considered a bearish development (If it does break out). The $100 round number is a massive consideration on this chart also… if it gets above $100, it probably flies. I’d probably take an entry above $100 with a stop below $97.
Louisiana Pacific (LPX)
I shared this chart with our clients and members a few weeks ago. Strong Earnings Growth, reasonable P/E, a strong looking chart with a good risk : reward proposition. Above $68, what’s not to like?
A Watchlist To Consider
Here’s a list of the charts I’ve been putting out to my clients and members over the last few weeks, many of the name’s have already made big leaps, but there might be something there for you if you like to do some homework.
Happy New Year and cheers to a healthy and prosperous 2022.
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